A new study has mapped population projects for every major U.S. metro area through 2030. According to it, Dallas can expect pretty significant growth over the next 15 years and shifts in racial makeup.
For “Mapping America’s Futures,” the Urban Institute looked at historical and census data and projected that Dallas is likely to add nearly 1.5 million people over the next decade and a half, if average rates of births, deaths and migration persist — pushing the population from 4,216,967 in 2010 to 5,714,576. That would be good for a 35.51 percent increase.
The interactive tool from the institute also shows that 67.6 percent of the population would be 49 years old or younger. Whites would still be the largest ethnic group at more than 2.1 million, up from 1.98 million in 2010. But the Hispanic population would see the largest growth: It is expected to jump from 1.25 million to 1.95 million in the 20-year span.
That’s if everything continues as it has been, though. The tool also allows users to look at what would happen if rates were set 20 percent higher or lower than the average. In the most accelerated situation — with more births, longer lives and higher migration — Dallas could gain as much as 2.2 million people for a 52 percent population growth.
If birth rates slow, death rates increase and fewer people migrate to Dallas, whites would actually lose population, though they would still be the largest group in the city, with 80,000 more than the Hispanic population. Overall, Dallas would gain only around 841,000 more people for a 19.96 percent increase over 2010.