Real Estate Rumblings

Dallas housing market remains hot but experts say prepare for cooldown

Dallas housing market remains hot but experts say prepare for cooldown

2800 Daniel in Dallas
Dallas home prices are still up over last year, but the gap is closing. Photo courtesy of Dave Perry-Miller & Associates

Dallas single-family home prices are still up over last year, but that gap is starting to close. According to a new report from CoreLogic, home prices in the Dallas-Plano-Irving metropolitan were up 8.7 percent in May 2014 compared to the same period last year. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1 percent in May 2014.

Compare that to the 10.4 percent year-over-year increase in April, 11 percent in March, 11.3 percent in February and 12.2 percent in January, and you’ll start to see the trend. Dallas also dropped a spot among the top 10 housing markets to No. 8.

What’s happening in Dallas mirrors the national averages: a year-over-year increase of 8.8 percent and month-over-month increase of 1.4 percent. Across Texas, the numbers look similar: 8.9 percent gains over May 2013 and .9 percent gains since April 2014. However, Houston continues to buck the statewide and national trends, and its 13 percent increase in home prices over May of last year was enough to earn it a No. 3 spot nationally.

“May’s 8.8 percent year-over-year growth rate is down almost three percentage points from just three months ago,” says CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming. “The influences of modestly rising inventory and less-than-expected demand are causing price growth to moderate toward our forecasted expectations.”

A continued increase in prices across the country has positive and negative implications on the housing market, says Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “While the rapid rise in prices over the past two years has lifted many homeowners out of negative equity, it has also become a negative factor in buying decisions for prospective purchasers weighing affordability concerns.

As we move ahead, a moderation in home price increases over the next 12 months should help cool things down a bit and keep the housing recovery going.”

To determine the home price index (HPI), CoreLogic, a residential property information, analytics and services provider, looks at price, time between sales, property type, loan type and distressed sales. The CoreLogic HPI is a repeat-sales index that tracks increases and decreases in sales prices for the same single-family homes over time, which provides a more accurate “constant quality” view of pricing trends, as opposed to views of pricing trends based on analysis of all home sales.