North Texas' continued economic gain is expected to make Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington a top 10 market for housing growth in 2015, according to a new study from Realtor.com. The 2015 Housing Forecast suggests that Dallas' increasing inventory, high employment growth and relative affordability makes it the No. 1 market for forecasted household growth over the next five years.
“Dallas has been a top housing market performer and is forecasted to remain one of the best in 2015 as the market excels in almost every major fundamental category,” Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of Realtor.com, said in a release. His report included predictions for home prices, home sales, mortgage rates and affordability, as well as the top 10 markets for housing growth.
According to Smoke, the Dallas market is forecasted to see a 3 percent employment growth in 2015, above the national average, while the next five years are primed for an 8 percent growth in both total households and home-owning households. “Dallas is a strong new construction market, which helps to contain supply pressures. We are forecasting 3 percent growth in home prices in 2015 and 7 percent growth in home sales,” he added.
That increased employment is driving Millenials to become a larger slice of the home-buying pie, accounting for nearly two-thirds of purchases nationwide.
Overall, national prices are expected to rise from 4 to 5 percent while affordability will drop anywhere from 5 to 10 percent. Smoke expects some of this to be offset by a rise in income, but high-priced markets such as San Francisco will continue to be difficult for first-time homebuyers.
National existing home sales are also expected to increase by 8 percent, with new home sales increasing by 25 percent. The report indicates that this year-to-year increase is similar to what was seen in 2012, but this time the amount of distressed properties will be minimal. Smoke also predicts mortgage rates to hit 5 percent by the end of 2015.
The other Texas market in the top 10 is Houston-The Woodlands, thanks to an employment growth double the national average at 4 percent, but it ranks third in five-year household growth. Smoke expects a 5 percent growth in home sales in Houston.
The eight other markets in the top 10, listed alphabetically, are Atlanta-Sandy Springs, Georgia; Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, Colorado; Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa; Los Angeles-Long Beach, California.; Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minnesota; Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Arizona; San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California; and Washington, D.C.