A new ceiling

Dallas-Fort Worth to unlock Texas' biggest home price decrease in 2020, says new report

DFW will see Texas' biggest decrease in home prices next year.

Photo courtesy of Austin Board of Realtors

Homebuyers in Dallas-Fort Worth may have a price break to look forward to in 2020, according to a new forecast from Realtor.com.

In an outlook published December 4, Realtor.com foresees home prices in DFW declining 0.5 percent in 2020 versus 2019. That would be the biggest drop in home prices among the state’s four major metro areas.

“The North Texas housing market has come off of several record-breaking years,” says Cathy Mitchell, president of the MetroTex Association of Realtors. “A slight self-correction in the market compared to what we have experienced the last few years was expected and could prove to be beneficial in balancing our market with more quality inventory.”

MetroTex says the median home price in DFW jumped 6 percent to $264,000 in October compared with the same time in 2018.

Elsewhere in Texas, Realtor.com anticipates buyers in the Austin area will enjoy a 0.2 percent dip in home prices next year compared with this year.

“As a realtor who serves the Austin real estate market daily, I do not agree with the Realtor.com forecast,” Romeo Manzanilla, incoming 2020 president of the Austin Board of Realtors, tells CultureMap. “Affordability concerns in the Austin metro area will continue to persist in 2020, as Austin’s economy will be fueled by tech and other companies relocating, expanding, or establishing secondary headquarters in Austin. Given the housing shortage and continued demand, median home prices will continue to rise at a conservative rate.”

In October, the median home price in the Austin area soared 7.4 percent to $327,500 versus the same time in 2018, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. That makes Austin the priciest home market among the four major metro areas in Texas.

Homebuyers in San Antonio are in store for a bit of sticker shock in 2020. Realtor.com predicts prices for single-family homes in the San Antonio metro area will climb 0.8 percent next year compared with 2019 — the highest price increase on tap among Texas’ four major metro areas.

“We are fortunate in San Antonio that we have remained pretty steady in our price growth over the years while other markets continue to fluctuate,” Grant Lopez, chairman of the San Antonio Board of Realtors, tells CultureMap. “And despite the increase in prices, we are still one of the most affordable housing markets in Texas.”

In October, the median home price in the San Antonio area stood at $235,700, up 6 percent from October 2018, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors. That’s the lowest median price among the state’s four largest metro areas.

Homebuyers in the Houston metro area are expected to see a tiny bump in prices next year — 0.2 percent compared with 2019, according to the Realtor.com forecast.

“Overall, I think 2020 will be a good year to be a buyer, and I think sellers will have to reset some expectations depending on their hyperlocal market,” Paige Martin, broker associate and leader of the Houston Properties Team at Keller Williams, tells CultureMap.

In October, the median price for a home in the Houston area reached $239,900, up 2.1 percent from October 2018, the Houston Board of Realtors says.

Overall, the Realtor.com forecast indicates median home prices will stay relatively steady across the state’s four biggest metro areas in 2020 — and will stay well below prices in a number of East Coast and West Coast markets, particularly big metro areas in Northern and Southern California.

“Cities in Arizona, Nevada, and Texas will continue to benefit from shoppers looking for more affordable alternatives to California,” says George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com.

home-for-sale

The Boom Continues

Booming DFW ZIPs among 10 fastest-growing new neighborhoods in U.S.

Overhead view of a neighborhood in Keller, Texas

Photo by Braden Egli on Unsplash

Dallas keeps on growing.

As Texas' ever-growing population generates more demand among regional housing markets, two Dallas-area ZIP codes have seen more growth than nearly all other ZIPs in the state — and in the country.

75078 in Prosper and 75454 in Melissa respectfully ranked as the ninth and 10th in RentCafe's new study that analyzed the 50 fastest-growing "new neighborhoods" in America "that barely existed a decade ago." One more North Texas ZIP in Fort Worth also made the top 10.

The study reviewed housing inventory and population growth across 32,000 U.S. ZIP codes and narrowed down the search to the top 50 locales that experienced a 51 percent minimum surge in new housing units from 2014-2023.

Overall, Texas dominated the list with 17 of the nation's 50 booming new neighborhoods.

The report's findings revealed Prosper has more than tripled its housing inventory to 14,409 units, up from about 4,200 units in 2014. The area's population has also more than tripled, from 13,229 to 46,857 residents as of 2023.

Melissa's population has surged 211.2 percent over the last decade, from 6,471 to 20,137 residents, and housing inventory soared 222 percent to keep pace with the growth. A recent boom in apartment construction is a major factor that contributed to the suburb's expansion, the report said, which has showed no signs of slowing as more than 1,300 new apartments were built in Melissa in 2024.

"Here again, proximity to Dallas and accelerated development activity are driving growth," the report said. "Looking ahead, Melissa is slated for more housing projects to accommodate new residents."

Dallas suburbs like Prosper and Melissa also "offer easy access to Dallas jobs and provide newly built schools and quality urban services," according to the report.

RentCafe's separate ranking of the best "up-and-coming" communities ranked Prosper and Celina, another rapidly growing Dallas suburb, among the top three in the U.S.

Fast-growing ZIPs in Dallas-Fort Worth
North Fort Worth's 76177 ZIP code ranked as the seventh fastest-growing ZIPs in the U.S. over the last decade. RentCafe determined this northern region saw a 266 percent surge in housing inventory in the last decade to keep up with the area's 302.1 percent population growth over the same period.

In 2014, there were just 6,003 residents living within the bounds of 76177, which stretches as far north as the area surrounding Texas Motor Speedway and as far south as the Chisholm Ridge neighborhood. During that same year, there were only 2,774 housing units in the area, which has since spiked to 10,140 units as of 2023. The ZIP code now boasts a population of more than 24,000 residents, the study found.

"[ZIP code] 76177’s growth was stimulated by the overall economic expansion of the Dallas-Fort Worth area," the report said. "Like many places in Texas, this enclave attracts residents due to a mix of accessibility, community and opportunities."

Celina's 75009 ZIP ranked just outside the top 10 as the 11th "newest" neighborhood in the U.S. Celina experienced a 229 percent increase in population over the 10-year span, and a 211 percent increase in housing inventory. In 2023, the suburb had a population of more than 30,000 residents, up from about 9,200 in 2014.

The top 10 "newest" neighborhoods in the U.S., says RentCafe, are:

No. 1 – Chino, California (91708)
No. 2 – Timnath, Colorado (80547)
No. 3 – Colorado Springs (80927)
No. 4 – Fulshear, Texas (77441)
No. 5 – Ponte Vedra, Florida (32081)
No. 6 – Jersey City, New Jersey (07311)
No. 7 – Fort Worth (76177)
No. 8 – Colorado Springs (80924)
No. 9 – Prosper, Texas (75078)
No. 10 – Melissa, Texas (75454)

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