Population boom

Dallas-Fort Worth could be biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

Everyone wants to live here.

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Start spreading the news: Dallas-Fort Worth will eclipse New York City as the biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says the Metroplex's population could swell to 33.91 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be DFW (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Houston's population is estimated to grow to 31.38 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington is currently the fourth biggest metro in the country with a population of just under 7 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

DFW had the highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (170,396 residents), followed by the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land (124,281 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out.

"[Dallas-Fort Worth] would experience more than 130 days of 95-degree temps by 2100," the report's author says. "Water scarcity could also be an issue. But like Atlanta, landlocked [DFW] could become a top destination for people fleeing the flooding coastlines from sea level rise."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for DFW, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)

These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.

The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

dallas fort worth population growth census bureau reports

Texas politics

Ken Paxton defeats John Cornyn in Texas U.S. Senate runoff

Photo courtesy of KVUE

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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated four-term Sen. John Cornyn on Tuesday, May 26 in a massively expensive, drawn-out U.S. Senate primary race.

Paxton was endorsed by President Donald Trump last week, and his victory showcased the president’s power over his party as he seeks to punish Republicans he sees as insufficiently loyal.

Paxton will run against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in November.

Democrats are hopeful that their nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, has a rare opportunity to win a statewide race in Texas — and help the party retake control of the Senate — with Paxton as his opponent.

Tuesday’s runoffs also decided Democratic U.S. House nominees for districts in Dallas and Houston that overwhelmingly support Democrats, and a San Antonio-area seat the party wants to flip.

‘I will be the Democrats’ No. 1 target'
In Austin on Tuesday night, Cornyn gave a short concession speech tinged with emotion to a room of only reporters.

“Tonight we’ve come up short,” Cornyn said, adding that he’d support Paxton in the general election. “I’ve always supported the Republican ticket, and I intend to do so again.”

Cornyn said in 2023 as Trump was running to return to the White House that his time “has passed him by," a statement that came back to bite him. He also was an early critic of Trump’s plan for a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico — a project he now supports.

Cornyn had the backing of Senate GOP leaders who said he would be the stronger general election candidate against Talarico, which was also the senator's argument to voters before Tuesday.

That's not lost on Paxton, who said in his speech that “without a shadow of a doubt, I will be the Democrats’ No. 1 target in November.”

Talarico's campaign hit back Tuesday night on the social platform X, highlighting what they — and some Republicans — see as Paxton's weakness, including an FBI investigation and impeachment for corruption in which he was later acquitted.

The primary was long and costly
Cornyn led Paxton in the March 3 primary but failed to win a majority. That was after Cornyn and his supporters waged a monthslong advertising campaign, mostly attacking Paxton over ethical and personal questions.

The two-term attorney general was acquitted on corruption charges in a 2023 impeachment trial, where allegations of extramarital affairs surfaced. Paxton’s wife filed for divorce last year, citing “biblical grounds.”

It gave Cornyn fodder for an ad campaign that, along with allied groups, spent roughly $109 million between the primary and runoff elections.

Immediately after the primary, Trump promised to endorse but didn’t act until after early voting began last week.

“Ken Paxton has gone through a lot, in many cases, very unfairly, but he is a fighter, and knows how to win,” Trump wrote in a social media post endorsing him.

Democrats choose US House nominees
Former Rep. Colin Allred beat U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson in the Dallas-area 33rd District's Democratic primary runoff. Johnson was elected to the seat in 2024, the year Allred lost his U.S. Senate challenge to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz. Allred was running for Senate again this cycle but dropped his bid and instead sought a return to the House.

Newly elected Rep. Christian Menefee defeated veteran Rep. Al Green in Texas' 18th District, dispatching a longtime House incumbent who was one of Trump's most outspoken critics. The Republican-led Texas Legislature redrew the district when it approved a new House map last year. The new map led to a runoff between incumbents and marks the end of a dizzying series of elections in the Houston area.

Near San Antonio, Johnny Garcia won the Democratic primary for Texas’ 35th District against against Maureen Galindo, a candidate who has expressed antisemitic views. While Texas lawmakers redrew the district to help Republicans, Democrats view it as within reach and didn't want Galindo's past comments to impede them.

Garcia will face Republican Carlos De La Cruz, who defeated John Lujan in the GOP primary.

texas politics