There is an entire Internet subculture devoted to predicting the Oscars. Like sporting events, it has its own Vegas odds-makers, and several blogs are devoted to handicapping the ceremony. Hard and fast rules don't work, and even renowned statistician Nate Silver wasn't as good at predicting who got little gold men as he was at predicting how the 2012 election would unfold.
No matter. If you followed my advice last year, you went with a tried-and-true regimen of pre-Oscar indicators, gut instinct and a resolution to not take it so seriously. You also got 18 out of 24 categories correct, which is more than enough to win most office Oscar pools.
This year should be no different if you follow my foolproof guide to the Oscars. These are the winners wrought by the awards season narrative, and I'll be absolutely sure of each one — until a few of them are wrong on Sunday.
Argo has made a late-season push to the front of the pack for Best Picture. Hollywood loves itself, so a movie about making movies (sort of) could swoop in and prevent the solid but straightforward Lincoln from Mitt-Romney-ing its way to victory.
Argo should pick up Editing and Adapted Screenplay awards as well, while Lincoln consoles itself with wins for performances by Daniel Day-Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones and Steven Spielberg's direction. In the other major categories, Jennifer Lawrence wins Best Actress by a nose for Silver Linings Playbook, while Anne Hathaway wins Best Supporting Actress in a landslide (pretty much just for singing the Susan Boyle song from Les Mis, which will also win Sound Mixing for its innovative live-singing production). In a wide-open race, Django Unchained stands poised to take Original Screenplay.
Life of Pi should take a bunch of technical awards for looking pretty. Skyfall will become only the third Bond movie to win an Oscar, taking home both Sound Effects Editing and Best Original Song for Adele's titular ballad. Anna Karennina easily wins Best Costumes, and The Hobbit wins makeup for dusting off the hobbit feet.
That leaves Wreck-It Ralph winning Best Animated Feature, Amour (a Best Picture nominee) easily winning Best Foreign Language Film, Searching For Sugar Man taking Best Documentary and, finally, the unpredictable short films. Getting one short film right is a good day: at least Paperman (a partially hand-drawn industry favorite) is a lock for Animated Short. I have gone with Curfew in Live Action Short (it has a cute little kid), and Mondays at Racine (it's about cancer) in Documentary Short.
Without further ado, here's my comprehensive guide to the Academy Awards. Best of luck! And if I'm way off, I promise all of your money back.
Picture: Argo Director: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Original Screenplay: Django Unchained Adapted Screenplay:Argo Editing:Argo Cinematography:Life of Pi Score:Life of Pi Song: "Skyfall" by Adele from Skyfall Art Direction:Life of Pi Costumes:Anna Karennina Sound Mixing:Les Miserables Sound Effects Editing:Skyfall Makeup: The Hobbit Visual Effects: Life of Pi Foreign:Amour Animated Feature:Wreck-It Ralph Doc Feature:Searching for Sugar Man Doc Short:Mondays at Racine Animated Short: Paperman Live Short: Curfew
Django Unchained is poised to take Original Screenplay.
Photo courtesy of The Weinstein Company
Django Unchained is poised to take Original Screenplay.
Photo courtesy of Aardman / Sky UK LTD / StudioCanal 2026
Shaun the Sheep in Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom.
Since his introduction over 30 years ago, the Aardman Animations character Shaun the Sheep has been almost as popular as the studio’s flagship characters, Wallace and Gromit. There is never a shortage of trouble Shaun can get into as he leads his flock and proves to be a thorn in the side of his farmer and Bitzer, the farmer’s loyal sheepdog.
His antics lead everyone down some slightly spooky roads in the new film, Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom. At first, things are only slightly awry as Shaun and the flock are growing a secret pumpkin patch to have their own jack-o-lanterns. But when the farmer accidentally destroys the pumpkin patch, Shaun tries to regrow it quickly with a Frankenstein-esque experiment.
However, disaster looms when Shaun uses an old bottle of Hair-Gro as the container for the serum he creates. Naturally, the balding farmer uses it on his head, and everyone soon discovers how truly successful it is, with pumpkins growing out of control and the farmer sprouting hair all over his body. Through a series of mishaps, the farmer becomes the titular beast, creating mayhem while Shaun and others try to stop him.
Directed by Steve Cox and Matthew Walker, and written by Mark Burton and Giles Pilbrow, the film goes down just as easy as every other Aardman project has. They get the Halloween vibes started from the opening credits, with things like the sheep doing the “Thriller” dance, and continue the fun throughout, referencing everything from Psycho to Friday the 13th in a nice, PG way.
With no script — every character is mute save for reaction noises — the movie relies on sight gags for its humor, and the Aardman team is endlessly inventive in that respect. Sometimes it’s small things like a sheep using toilet paper rolls as binoculars, and sometimes it’s something like forcing the Bigfoot-like farmer to be shaped into a rectangle as he escapes through a window. But there’s a never-ending stream of such moments, so even if one doesn’t tickle your funny bone, chances are the next one will.
The biggest benefit of the characters not talking is that there’s no need for deep character development. The filmmakers do a great job of giving the basic traits of each character, and then use those attributes to color everyone’s actions for the rest of the film. Shaun is the troublemaker, the farmer is a bumbling fool, Bitzer is preternaturally smart, and the town’s vet is empathetic, and the combination of those characters and others makes for a highly entertaining blend.
Like all Aardman creations, Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom is a fun lark that doesn’t make its audience think too hard. With just enough references to keep viewers engaged but not so many as to be overbearing, the film puts its well-worn characters to good use once again, delivering a Halloween season story that can be enjoyed by people of all ages.
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Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom is now playing in theaters.