Welcoming the masses

Dallas-Fort Worth could see biggest population surge in U.S. through 2029, study says

For the second decade in a row, DFW could have the highest number of new residents for any metro area.

Photo by Joe Daniel Price/Getty Images

Brace yourselves, North Texans. Following a decade of eye-popping population growth, Dallas-Fort Worth is expected in this decade to once again lead the nation’s metro areas for the number of new residents.

New data from commercial real estate services company Cushman & Wakefield shows DFW gained 1,349,378 residents from 2010 through 2019. In terms of the number of new residents tallied during the past decade, DFW ranked first among U.S. metro areas, the data indicates.

From 2020 through 2029, DFW is projected to tack on another 1,393,623 residents, Cushman & Wakefield says. For the second decade in a row, that would be the highest number of new residents for any metro area, the company says. By comparison, the Oklahoma City metro area was home to nearly 1.4 million people in 2018.

For DFW, the 2020-29 forecast would represent a population growth rate of 17.9 percent, down from 20.9 percent for 2010 through 2019, Cushman & Wakefield says.

As of July 2018, the Census Bureau estimated 7,539,711 people lived in DFW. Under the Cushman & Wakefield scenario, DFW’s population would swell to about 9 million by the time the calendar flips to 2030.

“Dallas is among the North American cities that are grappling with how to improve productivity to further enhance the growth benefits coming from strong population growth,” says Cushman & Wakefield, citing investments in technology and infrastructure upgrades as examples.

Today, DFW is the fourth largest metro area in the U.S., behind New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago. The population of Chicago, the third largest metro area, barely budged from 2010 to 2018, according to the Census Bureau. Today, about 9.46 million people live in the Windy City and its suburbs. If the Chicago area’s population growth remains relatively flat, DFW’s headcount conceivably could surpass Chicago’s in the not-too-distant future.

Cushman & Wakefield based its outlook on data from Moody’s Analytics and the U.S. Census Bureau. The company published its findings January 7. The outlook takes into account a metro area’s birth and death rates, along with the number of people moving into and out of an area.

A key barometer for DFW’s growth prospects is the size of its tech workforce.

A July 2019 report from commercial real estate services company CBRE found that only the San Francisco Bay Area, New York City, and Washington, D.C., beat DFW for the depth of the pool of tech workers in U.S. metro areas.

“The trend of corporate relocations to the Dallas-Fort Worth area isn’t slowing down,” Clay Vaughn, senior vice president of CBRE’s tech and media practice in Dallas, said in a release. “The favorable business climate and available tech talent in Dallas has made it one of the top startup markets in the U.S., which further incentivizes companies to move to the area.”

The Cushman & Wakefield forecast indicates DFW won’t be alone among Texas metro areas in terms of rolling out the welcome mat for lots of new residents.

Houston is predicted to add 1,242,781 residents from 2020 through 2029, which would put it in second place behind DFW for metro population growth during the new decade, according to Cushman & Wakefield. Houston ranked second from 2010 through 2019 as well, gaining 1,284,268 residents. That’s around the number of people who live in the Louisville, Kentucky, metro area.

As of July 2018, the Houston area was home to nearly 7 million people, making it the country’s fifth largest metro. If the Cushman & Wakefield projection is correct, the metro population would easily exceed 8 million by the end of 2029.

Houston’s population growth rate for 2020-29 is projected at 17.2 percent, compared with 21.6 percent from 2010 through 2019, according to Cushman & Wakefield’s outlook.

Austin, meanwhile, is projected to retain its No. 9 ranking for headcount growth among U.S. metro areas, according to Cushman & Wakefield. The company says the Austin area added 549,141 residents from 2010 through 2019. From 2020 through 2029, another 602,811 residents are on tap. At that pace, the Austin area is on track to have roughly 2.9 million residents at the outset of the next decade.

Cushman & Wakefield envisions a 26.5 percent population growth rate for the Austin area from 2020 through 2029, down from 31.8 percent in 2010-19.

The Cushman & Wakefield report doesn’t include figures for the San Antonio metro area.

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income analysis

This is the family income needed for one parent to stay home in Texas

Photo by Vitaly Gariev on Unsplash

With costs to raise a child soaring over $20,000 a year in Texas, some households might decide to have one parent work while the other stays at home to raise their child.

The cost of raising a child has ballooned in major metros like Dallas-Fort Worth, forcing many families to weight the choice between paying for child care or having one parent stay home full-time.

A recent analysis from SmartAsset determined the minimum income one parent needs to earn to support their partner staying at home to raise one child in all 50 states. In Texas, that amount is just under $75,000.

The study used the MIT Living Wage Calculator to compare the annual living wages needed for a household with two working adults and one child, and a household with one working adult, a stay-at-home parent, and one child. The study also calculated how much it would cost to raise a child with two working parents based on factors such as "food, housing, childcare, healthcare, transportation, incremental income taxes and other necessities."

A Texas household with one working parent would need to earn $74,734 a year to support their stay-at-home partner and their child, the report found. If both parents worked in the household, it would require an additional $10,504 in annual income to raise their child.

SmartAsset said the cost to raise a child in Texas in a two-working-parent household adds up to $23,587. Raising a child in North Texas, however, is slightly more affordable. A separate SmartAsset study from June 2025 determined it costs $22,337 to raise a child in Dallas-Fort Worth.

In the report's ranking of states with the highest minimum income needed to support a family with one working adult, a stay-at-home parent, and one child, Texas ranked 32nd on the list.

In other states like Massachusetts where raising a child can cost more than $40,000 a year, the report's author says families will look for ways to reduce any financial burdens.

"This often includes considerations around who’s going to work in the household, and whether young children will require paid daycare services while parents are occupied," the report said. "With tradeoffs abound, many parents might seek to understand the minimum income needed to keep the family afloat while allowing the other parent to stay home to raise a young child."

The top 10 states with the lowest minimum income threshold to support a three-person family on one income are:

West Virginia – $68,099
Arkansas – $68,141
Mississippi – $70,242
Kentucky – $70,408
North Dakota – $70,949
Oklahoma – $71,718
Ohio – $72,114
South Dakota – $72,218
Alabama – $72,238
Nebraska – $72,966

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