Population swell

Booming Texas could be the most populated state by 2100, new study finds

Traffic is not exactly going to get better.

Texas A&M Transportation Institute

Dallas-Fort Worth could be the nation's biggest metro by 2100, and now a new report says Texas might be the most populous state by the next century.

The population study by moving experts moveBuddha estimates Texas will be home to nearly 96 million people by 2100, which amounts to a 213.8 percent population increase. The Lone Star State will far outshine California, which is currently the most populated state with more than 39 million people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Texas only crossed the 30 million population milestone in July 2022, so there's still quite some time to get to that near-100 million mark in 77 years.

Overall, the analysis says, Southern states are predicted to grow exponentially by the turn of the next century. Florida will follow right behind Texas as the second most populated state, with an estimated growth of nearly 68.5 million people. California is expected to fall into No. 3, with an estimated population of just under 50.4 million by 2100.

However, just as moveBuddha caveated Austin's local 2100 population estimate with the unknown effects of climate change and a general uncertainty to predict the future, the state-by-state report includes similar warnings.

"We don’t know how climate change will affect migration patterns, and we don’t know the effects of new technologies," the report says. "Many Americans are leaving large cities and cold-weather states for less congested places and warmer climates, especially for the winter months."

Additional factors that might contribute to future migration patterns include housing affordability, lower taxes, and the number of Baby Boomers who decide to retire over the next several decades. And in Texas, specifically, moveBuddha says, the state will have to develop more and better infrastructure to handle the anticipated growth.

"Large Texas metropolitan areas like Dallas, Austin, and Houston will have to build much more infrastructure and combat the same big-city problems like crime and expensive housing that have made Americans move from places like Chicago and New York City," the report says.

According to the report, the top 10 biggest states and their populations by 2100 will be:

No. 1 – Texas (95,699,438)
No. 2 – Florida (68,495,750)
No. 3 – California (50,394,266)
No. 4 – Georgia (23,904,874)
No. 5 – North Carolina (23,049,547)
No. 6 – New York (20,214,987)
No. 7 – Washington (19,301,336)
No. 8 – Arizona (18,516,915)
No. 9 – Colorado (14,640,993)
No. 10 – Virginia (14,400,363)

Population projections were calculated with Census data between 1910 and 2023, using an annual compound growth rate for all states to estimate the population growth by 2100.

The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

population growth texas reports growth

income analysis

This is the family income needed for one parent to stay home in Texas

Photo by Vitaly Gariev on Unsplash

With costs to raise a child soaring over $20,000 a year in Texas, some households might decide to have one parent work while the other stays at home to raise their child.

The cost of raising a child has ballooned in major metros like Dallas-Fort Worth, forcing many families to weight the choice between paying for child care or having one parent stay home full-time.

A recent analysis from SmartAsset determined the minimum income one parent needs to earn to support their partner staying at home to raise one child in all 50 states. In Texas, that amount is just under $75,000.

The study used the MIT Living Wage Calculator to compare the annual living wages needed for a household with two working adults and one child, and a household with one working adult, a stay-at-home parent, and one child. The study also calculated how much it would cost to raise a child with two working parents based on factors such as "food, housing, childcare, healthcare, transportation, incremental income taxes and other necessities."

A Texas household with one working parent would need to earn $74,734 a year to support their stay-at-home partner and their child, the report found. If both parents worked in the household, it would require an additional $10,504 in annual income to raise their child.

SmartAsset said the cost to raise a child in Texas in a two-working-parent household adds up to $23,587. Raising a child in North Texas, however, is slightly more affordable. A separate SmartAsset study from June 2025 determined it costs $22,337 to raise a child in Dallas-Fort Worth.

In the report's ranking of states with the highest minimum income needed to support a family with one working adult, a stay-at-home parent, and one child, Texas ranked 32nd on the list.

In other states like Massachusetts where raising a child can cost more than $40,000 a year, the report's author says families will look for ways to reduce any financial burdens.

"This often includes considerations around who’s going to work in the household, and whether young children will require paid daycare services while parents are occupied," the report said. "With tradeoffs abound, many parents might seek to understand the minimum income needed to keep the family afloat while allowing the other parent to stay home to raise a young child."

The top 10 states with the lowest minimum income threshold to support a three-person family on one income are:

West Virginia – $68,099
Arkansas – $68,141
Mississippi – $70,242
Kentucky – $70,408
North Dakota – $70,949
Oklahoma – $71,718
Ohio – $72,114
South Dakota – $72,218
Alabama – $72,238
Nebraska – $72,966

texas income smartasset family