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Growth spurt

Texas population is barreling toward eye-popping milestone in 2022

John Egan
Dec 22, 2021 | 3:01 pm
290 lanes traffic
Get ready for more traffic.
Photo courtesy of TxDOT

Texas is edging closer to a milestone — a population of 30 million.

Estimates released December 21 by the U.S. Census Bureau show the population of Texas grew 1.1 percent between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021. During that period, the state added 310,288 residents, going from 29,217,653 to 29,527,941. The tally takes into account births, deaths, people moving to Texas, and people moving out of Texas.

Texas ranked first among the states for the number of residents added from 2020 to 2021, which worked out to 850 new residents per day, and seventh for percentage growth. At 2.9 percent, Idaho ranked first for percentage growth.

If Texas maintains a year-to-year growth rate of at least 1.1 percent, the state might break the 30 million mark sometime in 2022. Driving the state’s continued population explosion are people of color, who’ve made up 91 percent of new Texas residents in the 21st century, according to The Texas Tribune.

Lloyd Potter, the state demographer, says it’s conceivable that Texas could be home to 30 million residents in 2022.

“However, our rate of growth has slowed noticeably between 2020 and 2021, with lower fertility, higher mortality, and less international migration. If we add the same number of people estimated to have been added between 2020 and 2021, then it looks like we’ll come up a bit short of 30 million in 2022,” Potter says.

Throughout the country, the COVID-19 pandemic helped drag down population growth from July 2020 to July 2021. The U.S. population rose just 0.1% during that period — the smallest one-year increase since the nation was founded.

“Population growth has been slowing for years because of lower birth rates and decreasing net international migration, all while mortality rates are rising due to the aging of the nation’s population,” Kristie Wilder, a demographer at the Census Bureau, says in a news release. “Now, with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, this combination has resulted in a historically slow pace of growth.”

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Election results

Talarico, Hinojosa lead historic Democratic sweep in 2026 Texas election

Associated Press
Nov 4, 2026 | 9:24 am
Gina Hinojosa, James Talarico
Getty Images
Gina Hinojosa has been elected Texas governor, and James Talarico has been elected U.S. Senator from Texas.

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Democrats finally got their wish in Texas.

Shut out of power for decades, Democrats on Tuesday, November 3 romped up and down the ballot in Republicans' most populous stronghold, flipping a U.S. Senate seat and retaking the governor's mansion in a history-making election that ushered in an overnight resurgence for a party that has spent much of the last 30 years fighting for scraps.

The stunning victories showed how voters, frustrated over high prices and concerned about government corruption, soundly rejected President Donald Trump's party and handed Democrats a decisive foothold in a fast-changing state of nearly 32 million residents that is one of the world's 10 largest economies. The dominant showing included winning back counties along the border with Mexico — where Republicans had been making inroads with Hispanic voters — and flipping congressional seats even though Republicans gerrymandered the map to give them an upper hand.

“This win is for every Texan who has ever wondered if anyone is ever listening,” Democrat James Talarico said after handily winning his Senate race over Republican Ken Paxton, the state's scandal-plagued attorney general.

“I heard you. We heard you. And tonight, the world hears you," Talarico said.

Texas Democrats hadn’t won a statewide campaign since 1994 and now have breakout stars in Talarico and Gina Hinojosa, who ousted Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in a victory that will make her Texas' first Latina governor. They also won the powerful offices of lieutenant governor (Vicki Goodwin unseated longtime Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick) and attorney general (Nathan Johnson defeated Mayes Middleton), widening the validation for Democrats’ long deferred dream that demographic changes in the state would be followed by a shift in political power.

Spotlight on Talarico
Talarico, the 37-year-old state legislator, former middle school teacher, and Presbyterian seminarian, will become Texas’ first Democratic senator since 1993.

A large crowd erupted in cheers at Talarico's watch party in downtown Austin after the race was called.

“We just took back Texas,” Talarico told supporters upon taking the stage.

Talarico will become the Senate’s youngest member and replace longtime Sen. John Cornyn, 74, who lost a bruising GOP primary to the scandal-plagued Paxton, whose nomination bolstered Talarico’s appeal to Republican and independent voters.

Speaking briefly to supporters in Dallas, Paxton acknowledged GOP losses across the map. “We’ve had a difficult night tonight across the country, but it’s not over,” he said.

The heated campaign in Texas, one of the most expensive of the midterms, became partly a referendum on Paxton’s legal, personal and ethical troubles that have shadowed much of his three terms as the state’s attorney general.

Talarico, the grandson of a Baptist preacher, ran a campaign that sidestepped culture-war battles and instead emphasized an economic populist message while skewering Paxton’s history of scandal.

He told crowds that the biggest divide in the U.S. “is not left versus right, it’s top versus bottom.” Rarely maligning the Republican Party as a whole, the Democrat, whose path to victory required converting GOP voters, focused on the top issue of a frustrated electorate: the rising cost of living.

Hinojosa makes history
Hinojosa will become Texas' first Latina governor — and the first Democrat to hold the office since Ann Richards in the 1990s — following a groundbreaking victory that topples one of the nation's most prominent Republican governors and steadfast supporters of President Donald Trump, possibly accelerating the state’s shift to an emerging battleground.

Hinojosa's win served as validation for Democrats' long deferred dream that demographic changes in the state would be followed by a shift in political power. It also elevates Hinojosa, a 52-year-old state legislator from a liberal Austin district since 2017, into a breakout Democratic star, even as she did not have significant support from the national party for her campaign.

“It never bothered me that they doubted me. It bothered me that they doubted us,” Hinojosa told supporters at her victory party in Austin. “Texas, my faith in you never wavered.”

Jumping in the race with little money or name recognition, Hinojosa engineered a plucky and populist challenge, railing against artificial intelligence data centers and corruption to down Abbott. She also proved that money in politics has clear limits. Billionaire Elon Musk had spent tens of millions of dollars to back Republicans, and Abbott's campaign had spent $180 million since last year in what was thought to be a safe path to a fourth term.

But Hinojosa proved durable while simultaneously riding the tailwinds of Talarico's hard-charging Senate campaign, one of the nation's marquee races.

Abbott, who had been seeking a record fourth term, said he called Hinojosa and pledged to help her transition into office.

“Leading this state has been the greatest honor I’ve ever had,” Abbott told supporters as he conceded the race.

Putting the victory into action
How Hinojosa governs is likely to open a dramatic political and cultural shift in the Texas Capitol, which over the last decade has passed one of the nation’s strictest abortion laws, increasingly aggressive immigration crackdowns, and relaxed gun laws even as Texas was the site of some of the nation's worst mass shootings over the past decade.

Democrats didn't win in Texas with promises to turn back the clock on issues like abortion, guns, transgender rights, and diverting public tax money to private education. Instead, they ran on more populist ideas of affordability and railing against artificial intelligence data centers and corruption.

Hinojosa, a state legislator who grew up in the Rio Grande Valley along the border with Mexico, distanced herself from the proud progressive brand she carried in the statehouse. She instead batted away culture war issues for populist stances on an economy battered by Trump's tariffs and an unpopular war with Iran.

“The voters have delivered a mandate for change, and it is change they will get,” Hinojosa said. “We will lead with politics of courage, not convenience. Progress will not be halted by partisanship and Texas will bow to no one.”

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