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Lively market

Dallas-Fort Worth home prices could climb this high in 2021, says new forecast

John Egan
Dec 18, 2020 | 9:21 am
Dallas skyline
The Dallas-Fort Worth market continues to be hot.
Photo by Sean Pavone/iStock

If a new prediction is accurate, the median home price in Dallas-Fort Worth would reach at least $316,000 in 2021, and home sales growth would surpass that of Texas’ three other major metro areas.

Realtor.com predicts DFW will see combined sales and price growth of 15.7 percent next year in the housing market compared with 2020. That figure puts it at No. 22 in Realtor.com’s ranking of the top 100 major metro areas; it’s the highest ranking among the state’s four major metros. DFW’s 15.7 percent number breaks down to 11.3 percent for sales growth and 4.4 percent for price growth.

If Realtor.com is correct, the 4.4 percent growth rate for home prices could push the median home price in DFW to more than $316,800 in 2021 from $303,500 in October. That growth rate would be welcome news, though. From October 2019 to October 2020, the median price of a home in DFW jumped 12.4 percent, according to the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

Meanwhile, projected sales growth of 11.3 percent would make for a busy 2021 for DFW homebuyers and home sellers. Spurred by historically low mortgage interest rates, a record-setting 12,829 homes were sold in DFW in July, the Texas A&M center says.

“We expect a healthy level of growth across Texas metros in 2021, with prices expected to rise 4 to 5 percent in each of the major metros and sales expected to grow between 5 and 11 percent over 2020,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “An improving economy that drives strong job growth is a big contributing factor in these metros, in addition to above-average household growth.”

“Younger buyers are already doing well in most of these markets,” Hale adds, “and because they make up an above-average portion of the population in these metros, we expect them to contribute to healthy sales growth.”

Elsewhere in Texas:

Austin could be the state’s most challenging market in 2021 for younger homebuyers, Hale says. That’s because Austin is a competitive market where the median home price surged 19.7 percent from November 2019 to November 2020, she says, and because hefty down payments “are a big hurdle for first-time buyers.”

Among the state’s four major metros, Austin ranks second in the Realtor.com forecast. Its national ranking sits at No. 37, with year-over-year sales growth pegged at 8.6 percent and year-over-year price growth projected to be 4.6 percent for a combined total of 13 percent.

At No. 47 nationally is San Antonio. There, the sales growth rate in 2021 is expected to be 7.2 percent and the price growth rate is predicted to be 4.3 percent for a combined total of 11.5 percent.

Houston lands at No. 61 on the Realtor.com list. The website envisions 5.3 percent growth for sales and 4.6 percent growth for prices for a combined total of 9.9 percent.

At No. 16, El Paso is the top-ranked Texas market in the Realtor.com forecast. The combined 17 percent growth rate envisioned for 2021 comprises 10.6 percent growth in sales and 6.4 percent growth in prices.

Here are the top five metro markets in Realtor.com’s outlook:

  1. Sacramento, California, 24.6 percent overall growth rate
  2. San Jose, California, 21.6 percent overall growth rate
  3. Charlotte, North Carolina, 19 percent overall growth rate
  4. Boise, Idaho, 18.9 percent overall growth rate
  5. Seattle, 18.4 percent overall growth rate
reports rankings lists
news/real-estate

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out of reach

This is how long it takes to save for a starter home in Dallas right now

Amber Heckler
Oct 26, 2026 | 9:44 am
Tri Pointe Homes house
Courtesy of Tri Pointe Homes
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A new national housing affordability report has confirmed something many renters already know: The possibility of owning a home is moving further out of reach for many renters across America.

Becoming a new homeowner is especially challenging for households in several major U.S. metros — including Dallas — where it now takes well over a decade to save enough money for a down payment on a starter home.

These findings were unveiled in a new study from The Julian Bond Institute for Financial Equity Research (JBI), a nonprofit research branch of the Center for Responsible Lending (CRL). The report comes as a result of its Project 2050 Survey that analyzed "Americans' financial aspirations across generations and racial groups and the obstacles they encounter in achieving them."

JBI said Americans of all generations, racial backgrounds, and ethnicities haven't given up on "this aspect of the American dream," but the journey towards becoming a homeowner is "grow[ing] exceedingly challenging." In addition to saving for a down payment and closing costs, renters must also navigate high mortgage rates and high home prices. All of these combined factors have pushed monthly payments out of reach for most families.

"There has been much coverage of the difficulty aspiring homeowners face in being able to afford the monthly payments on a home loan," the report said. "But less attention has been given to an equally important part of the housing affordability squeeze: The impact that higher home prices and the affordability crisis are having on the ability of families to save enough money to afford the upfront costs of homeownership."

Using the results from a previous 2019 survey and the most recent survey results, JBI examined how many years it would take a typical renter family to save enough money to cover a down payment and closing costs for a starter home in the U.S. and in its 10 biggest metros.

The report found that it now takes the typical Dallas renter household 12 years to save for a starter home in 2026, up from 7 years in 2019. And Dallas technically appears on the lower end of the spectrum out of the 10 biggest U.S. metros.

"Although there is some variation across these areas, even in Houston — where the years to save is the lowest — it would take the typical aspiring homeowner 11 years to save enough money to purchase a starter home," the report said. "At the opposite end of the spectrum, in Los Angeles, it would take 24 years. And in all these areas, there has been a sizable increase in the number of years required to save since 2019."

For the typical American household, it now takes 16 years to save for a starter home, a figure that has doubled since 2019. That's based on an American median renter household income of $57,991, and an estimated saving rate of 2.63 percent. The report defines the saving rate as the percentage of a family’s income that can be set aside for the purchase of a home after expenditures, assuming that aspiring homeowner families can devote 75 percent of their savings toward a home purchase.

"[This] translates to annual savings of roughly $1,525," the report found. "For such a family, it would take 16 years to accumulate enough savings to purchase a starter home [at the median price of $335,574]."

Renter households that made $42,750 in income at a 3.96 saving rate would result in $1,693 saved for the purchase of a home in 2019. By those metrics, it would take the typical renter household eight years to save for a starter home at the 2019 median price of $217,520.

This is how many years it takes to save for a starter home in the 10 biggest U.S. metros compared to 2019, from longest to shortest:

  • Los Angeles: 24 years, up from 14 years in 2019
  • New York City: 23 years, up from 10 years
  • Miami: 22 years, up from 10 years
  • Washington, D.C.: 16 years, up from 8 years
  • Chicago: 15 years, up from 8 years
  • Philadelphia: 15 years, up from 8 years
  • Phoenix: 15 years, up from 8 years
  • Atlanta: 13 years, up from 7 years
  • Dallas: 12 years, up from 7 years
  • Houston: 11 years, up from 8 years
real estate housing affordability housing market real estate report dallas houston
news/real-estate
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