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A new ceiling

Dallas-Fort Worth to unlock Texas' biggest home price decrease in 2020, says new report

John Egan
Dec 11, 2019 | 10:47 am
Couple buying a house
DFW will see Texas' biggest decrease in home prices next year.
Photo courtesy of Austin Board of Realtors

Homebuyers in Dallas-Fort Worth may have a price break to look forward to in 2020, according to a new forecast from Realtor.com.

In an outlook published December 4, Realtor.com foresees home prices in DFW declining 0.5 percent in 2020 versus 2019. That would be the biggest drop in home prices among the state’s four major metro areas.

“The North Texas housing market has come off of several record-breaking years,” says Cathy Mitchell, president of the MetroTex Association of Realtors. “A slight self-correction in the market compared to what we have experienced the last few years was expected and could prove to be beneficial in balancing our market with more quality inventory.”

MetroTex says the median home price in DFW jumped 6 percent to $264,000 in October compared with the same time in 2018.

Elsewhere in Texas, Realtor.com anticipates buyers in the Austin area will enjoy a 0.2 percent dip in home prices next year compared with this year.

“As a realtor who serves the Austin real estate market daily, I do not agree with the Realtor.com forecast,” Romeo Manzanilla, incoming 2020 president of the Austin Board of Realtors, tells CultureMap. “Affordability concerns in the Austin metro area will continue to persist in 2020, as Austin’s economy will be fueled by tech and other companies relocating, expanding, or establishing secondary headquarters in Austin. Given the housing shortage and continued demand, median home prices will continue to rise at a conservative rate.”

In October, the median home price in the Austin area soared 7.4 percent to $327,500 versus the same time in 2018, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. That makes Austin the priciest home market among the four major metro areas in Texas.

Homebuyers in San Antonio are in store for a bit of sticker shock in 2020. Realtor.com predicts prices for single-family homes in the San Antonio metro area will climb 0.8 percent next year compared with 2019 — the highest price increase on tap among Texas’ four major metro areas.

“We are fortunate in San Antonio that we have remained pretty steady in our price growth over the years while other markets continue to fluctuate,” Grant Lopez, chairman of the San Antonio Board of Realtors, tells CultureMap. “And despite the increase in prices, we are still one of the most affordable housing markets in Texas.”

In October, the median home price in the San Antonio area stood at $235,700, up 6 percent from October 2018, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors. That’s the lowest median price among the state’s four largest metro areas.

Homebuyers in the Houston metro area are expected to see a tiny bump in prices next year — 0.2 percent compared with 2019, according to the Realtor.com forecast.

“Overall, I think 2020 will be a good year to be a buyer, and I think sellers will have to reset some expectations depending on their hyperlocal market,” Paige Martin, broker associate and leader of the Houston Properties Team at Keller Williams, tells CultureMap.

In October, the median price for a home in the Houston area reached $239,900, up 2.1 percent from October 2018, the Houston Board of Realtors says.

Overall, the Realtor.com forecast indicates median home prices will stay relatively steady across the state’s four biggest metro areas in 2020 — and will stay well below prices in a number of East Coast and West Coast markets, particularly big metro areas in Northern and Southern California.

“Cities in Arizona, Nevada, and Texas will continue to benefit from shoppers looking for more affordable alternatives to California,” says George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com.

home-for-sale
news/real-estate

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out of reach

This is how long it takes to save for a starter home in Dallas right now

Amber Heckler
Oct 26, 2026 | 9:44 am
Tri Pointe Homes house
Courtesy of Tri Pointe Homes
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A new national housing affordability report has confirmed something many renters already know: The possibility of owning a home is moving further out of reach for many renters across America.

Becoming a new homeowner is especially challenging for households in several major U.S. metros — including Dallas — where it now takes well over a decade to save enough money for a down payment on a starter home.

These findings were unveiled in a new study from The Julian Bond Institute for Financial Equity Research (JBI), a nonprofit research branch of the Center for Responsible Lending (CRL). The report comes as a result of its Project 2050 Survey that analyzed "Americans' financial aspirations across generations and racial groups and the obstacles they encounter in achieving them."

JBI said Americans of all generations, racial backgrounds, and ethnicities haven't given up on "this aspect of the American dream," but the journey towards becoming a homeowner is "grow[ing] exceedingly challenging." In addition to saving for a down payment and closing costs, renters must also navigate high mortgage rates and high home prices. All of these combined factors have pushed monthly payments out of reach for most families.

"There has been much coverage of the difficulty aspiring homeowners face in being able to afford the monthly payments on a home loan," the report said. "But less attention has been given to an equally important part of the housing affordability squeeze: The impact that higher home prices and the affordability crisis are having on the ability of families to save enough money to afford the upfront costs of homeownership."

Using the results from a previous 2019 survey and the most recent survey results, JBI examined how many years it would take a typical renter family to save enough money to cover a down payment and closing costs for a starter home in the U.S. and in its 10 biggest metros.

The report found that it now takes the typical Dallas renter household 12 years to save for a starter home in 2026, up from 7 years in 2019. And Dallas technically appears on the lower end of the spectrum out of the 10 biggest U.S. metros.

"Although there is some variation across these areas, even in Houston — where the years to save is the lowest — it would take the typical aspiring homeowner 11 years to save enough money to purchase a starter home," the report said. "At the opposite end of the spectrum, in Los Angeles, it would take 24 years. And in all these areas, there has been a sizable increase in the number of years required to save since 2019."

For the typical American household, it now takes 16 years to save for a starter home, a figure that has doubled since 2019. That's based on an American median renter household income of $57,991, and an estimated saving rate of 2.63 percent. The report defines the saving rate as the percentage of a family’s income that can be set aside for the purchase of a home after expenditures, assuming that aspiring homeowner families can devote 75 percent of their savings toward a home purchase.

"[This] translates to annual savings of roughly $1,525," the report found. "For such a family, it would take 16 years to accumulate enough savings to purchase a starter home [at the median price of $335,574]."

Renter households that made $42,750 in income at a 3.96 saving rate would result in $1,693 saved for the purchase of a home in 2019. By those metrics, it would take the typical renter household eight years to save for a starter home at the 2019 median price of $217,520.

This is how many years it takes to save for a starter home in the 10 biggest U.S. metros compared to 2019, from longest to shortest:

  • Los Angeles: 24 years, up from 14 years in 2019
  • New York City: 23 years, up from 10 years
  • Miami: 22 years, up from 10 years
  • Washington, D.C.: 16 years, up from 8 years
  • Chicago: 15 years, up from 8 years
  • Philadelphia: 15 years, up from 8 years
  • Phoenix: 15 years, up from 8 years
  • Atlanta: 13 years, up from 7 years
  • Dallas: 12 years, up from 7 years
  • Houston: 11 years, up from 8 years
real estate housing affordability housing market real estate report dallas houston
news/real-estate

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