Population boom

Dallas-Fort Worth could be biggest metro in U.S. by year 2100, new report says

Everyone wants to live here.

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Start spreading the news: Dallas-Fort Worth will eclipse New York City as the biggest metro area by the year 2100, a new report predicts.

An analysis by moving services site moveBuddha published June 22 says the Metroplex's population could swell to 33.91 million people in the next 77 years.

Based on current population and migration trends, in fact, America’s three biggest metropolitan areas by 2100 will be DFW (No. 1), Houston (No. 2), and Austin (No. 3), replacing New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago as the country’s most populous metros, the report predicts.

Houston's population is estimated to grow to 31.38 million, and Austin's is projected to jump to 22.29 million.

"The future of America may lie in Texas," the report's author says.

The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau says Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington is currently the fourth biggest metro in the country with a population of just under 7 million and a 10-year growth rate of about 20 percent.

DFW had the highest numeric increase in population between 2021 and 2022 of any U.S. metro (170,396 residents), followed by the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land (124,281 residents), according to the Census Bureau.

There are some risks to continued population booms, including the effects of climate change, moveBuddha points out.

"[Dallas-Fort Worth] would experience more than 130 days of 95-degree temps by 2100," the report's author says. "Water scarcity could also be an issue. But like Atlanta, landlocked [DFW] could become a top destination for people fleeing the flooding coastlines from sea level rise."

The study also comes with an obvious caveat: no one is sure what the future looks like in terms of population growth. Academics, scientists, and futurists alike haven't been able to agree on population predictions. Climate change isn't just a risk for DFW, but for the entire world, the report reminds.

"According to one GDP projection through 2099, over three-quarters of U.S. counties will suffer economically because of climate damage," the report says. "That could be from everything from heat-related deaths to sea-level rise to increased natural disasters... But if global warming is held in check, Texas may be America’s haven in 2100. New technologies may help us adapt to extreme weather and heat."

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)

These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people. The study then hypothesized the annual compound growth rates between 2020 and 2100 to find 2100's estimated population numbers for the same cities.

The full report and its methodology can be found on movebuddha.com.

dallas fort worth population growth census bureau reports

Politics News

Dallas narrows down field for new city manager to 4 candidates

Photo by R K on Unsplash

This is an Dallasite's sign to launch that small business they've been dreaming of.

After six months without a city manager, the city of Dallas has narrowed down the field of replacements to four semifinalists including one serving as current interim city manager, plus candidates from Fort Worth, Michigan, and Georgia.

Dallas has been without a city manager since May, when previous city manager T.C. Broadnax left to take a job with the city of Austin. Since that time, Broadnax's former chief of staff Kimberly Bizor Tolbert has served as interim city manager.

The city retained Baker Tilly, a consulting firm, to recruit and compile candidates. (Baker Tilly famously erred in the brochure it created for the position by featuring a photo of the Houston skyline instead of Dallas; they've since replaced it with Dallas.)

A spokesperson for Baker Tilly did not respond to inquiries but according to D Magazine, an email listing the candidates has been sent to the Dallas City Council.

The semifinalists include:

Kimberly Bizor Tolbert, Dallas’ current interim city manager
William Johnson, an assistant city manager in Fort Worth
Mark Washington, the city manager of Grand Rapids, Michigan
Zachary Williams, a county chief operating officer in Georgia

All have more than 25 years' of public administration experience and have worked in similar capacities in their respective cities.

Before working in Fort Worth, Johnson was Baltimore’s transportation director and Atlanta’s deputy chief operating officer and public works commissioner.

Washington worked in Fort Worth and Austin before becoming Grand Rapids’ city manager.

Williams has mostly worked in Georgia at the county level, including serving as county manager in Fulton County and chief operating officer in DeKalb County.

Tolbert began working for the city in 1998, first as the city manager’s assistant and later in the aviation department. Broadnax hired her as his chief of staff in 2017.

Unlike the Mayor and the Dallas City Council, the city manager position in Dallas is not elected but is instead appointed by the city council, and is tasked with executing policies, overseeing the annual budget, and managing staff at city hall.

The council’s Ad Hoc Committee will choose finalists, introduce them to the public, and make an offer in early 2025.

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