Mike Napoli is headed to Boston, but will Josh Hamilton be next out the door?

There is baseball news to deal with this week, but you’re forgiven if it snuck up on you. You’ve probably spent your time since the Texas Rangers were eliminated from the postseason kvetching about the Dallas Cowboys or trying to get to know your new-look Dallas Mavericks.

Baseball’s winter meetings, traditionally the apex of the offseason, take place in Nashville this week. Every major player in the game — team owners, general managers, on-field managers and player agents — will roam an upscale hotel taking meetings, talking to the press and spending millions of dollars on new personnel.

The Boston Red Sox appear to be spending already, as they reportedly signed Rangers catcher Mike Napoli to a three-year contract worth $39 million. The deal is not official yet because Napoli still has to pass a team physical. The Rangers were reportedly only willing to offer Napoli a two-year deal.

In the middle of this will be Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton. Well, actually, it will likely be Hamilton’s agent, Michael Moye, running the show.

Hamilton will be in Nashville, but he probably won’t be in front of cameras. He, however, will be the headliner.

Since the offseason began for the Rangers, Hamilton has been relatively silent. No media events. The only real news was the fact that he turned down the Rangers’ qualifying offer of $13.2 million, an event that most experts expected.

So what happens now?
First, expect Moye to take plenty of meetings and field plenty of preliminary offers. Don’t expect the Rangers to make an offer this week.

General manager Jon Daniels told reporters during an event at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on November 29 that the Rangers were staying in touch with Moye but were willing to let Hamilton test the free agent market before talking seriously about a contract.

In this case, the Rangers are willing to let other teams set the market. Their strategy, from here, seems simple: They want to let Hamilton and Moye be disappointed by offers in what they hope is a depressed free agent market and then swoop in with a reasonable, team-friendly offer.

The Rangers took a meeting with Prince Fielder last January, because Fielder and his agent were still trying to set the market. Hamilton’s excursion into free agency could work similarly.

Second, expect some unlikely suspects to be involved. Many believe the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox — two of baseball’s biggest spenders — won’t pursue Hamilton.

The Yankees are actually trying to avoid the game’s luxury tax, and a Hamilton contract would put them over that threshold. Boston might be interested, but only if Hamilton’s market value slips.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who took on a ton of salary in a September trade with the Red Sox that brought them Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett, probably won’t get involved either.

Two months ago, a sports book in Vegas published odds on who would sign Hamilton. The leader? The world champion San Francisco Giants, listed with 3-1 odds.

The Braves were 5-1; the Rangers were also 5-1. The Braves just signed B.J. Upton to a five-year, $75 million contract, according to media reports.

The Fielder signing with the Tigers happened out of the blue. It could happen again with Hamilton if the market drops.

Third, Hamilton won’t break the bank, at least not in the way you think he might. He’ll get paid, but he won’t get the massive long-term deal Albert Pujols did from the Angels last offseason.

Don’t hold your breath
Baseball execs are finally acknowledging the risks involved in signing stars to long contracts. The Rangers caught on a few years ago and rarely offer contracts longer than five years.

The Angels felt Pujols was a special case. Hamilton is also special, but not in the ways that would influence a team to offer him a contract that would get the 31-year-old outfielder to his 40s.

He’s a recovering drug and alcohol addict who has had two public relapses in three years, requires constant monitoring and must take multiple drug tests a week. Would you sign a player with that kind of baggage to a nine-year contract?

Finally, don’t expect a decision this week. It’s not like a decade ago when the game’s best free agents were signed away by the end of the winter meetings.

As the Fielder saga showed, teams are getting more finicky about spending money. And that will work against Hamilton getting a deal this week.