Would you pay $13.3 million next year to keep Josh Hamilton? Chances are you would, which is why there’s no way the Texas Rangers will be able to sign Hamilton for $13.3 million next season.

That $13.3 million was the amount of the Rangers’ qualifying offer to Hamilton last Friday. In baseball, that means if Hamilton signs somewhere else, the Rangers get a first-round pick in return. It’s sort of like going to a car dealership and making a low-ball offer on a Porsche and, when your offer is inevitably turned down, you get a Pontiac instead.

In truth, a Major League team doesn’t make a qualifying offer to a player unless they know that player is going to make more on the open market. That’s why the Rangers made an offer to Hamilton and not to Mike Napoli.

After the Rangers tendered their qualifying offer, there were reports that Hamilton was looking for a seven-year deal worth $175 million. That’s $25 million per year, nearly twice the qualifying offer.

So would you pay $175 million for seven years to keep Josh Hamilton in Texas? That’s the biggest question during this offseason’s hot stove league.

For Rangers general manager Jon Daniels and team president Nolan Ryan, it’s a decision that could determine the long-term future of the franchise. The reasons to keep Hamilton and the reasons to let him go are as complicated as Hamilton himself.

Why keep him?
You’ve seen his numbers right? He’s a career .304 hitter with 161 home runs and 553 RBI. With the Rangers he earned the 2010 American League Most Valuable Player award. He’s a five-time All-Star. He’s still a five-tool player.

When he’s on, he is really on. When he’s off, you still have to respect his bat in the way you had to respect Barry Bonds’ bat when he was in a slump.

The Rangers have a lineup that insulates Hamilton from being pitched around too often. The presence of clean-up hitter Adrian Beltre assures Hamilton can get at least one good pitch to hit per at-bat. He’s still an above-average fielder.

If Hamilton is interested in winning, Texas isn’t a bad place to do it. The Rangers are built for success for the next half-dozen years. Finally, Arlington isn’t exactly New York City. The media glare isn’t quite as serious, and the fan base is a little more forgiving — wild card game booing notwithstanding.

Why let him go?
Well, there’s his age. Actually it’s not his age. He is just 31. It’s what he did in his 20s that has to concern any team that commits to him long-term. It’s unclear what those years of drug and alcohol abuse did to his body.

Hamilton is injury-prone. He’s fought injuries in four of his five years in Texas, everything from a broken collarbone to whatever the heck happened to his eyes in Oakland earlier this year. He’s had two alcohol-related relapses in the past three years. You never know when the next one could earn him a suspension.

Hamilton’s story has attracted worldwide attention. But it’s also, to some degree, become a distraction.

From May’s controversial Sports Illustrated article ( in which Hamilton and his wife basically said there would be no Rangers hometown discount) to the movie of Hamilton’s life under development, there is more vying for Hamilton’s attention than ever before.

For the Rangers, they have to decide if paying Hamilton just south of $25 million per year is worth more to them long term than investing in a starting pitcher or a couple of solid position players that have less baggage.

Wherever Hamilton goes, it will have a ripple effect on all of baseball.